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While discussion on the state of the current US housing market is pretty much finished, experts have turned their attention from Is the housing market falling to Where is it going to fall first? And hardest?

There are many methods to predicting, and while none of them can even be qualified as scientific, there are trusted voices in the din that people look to to see a glimpse of what might happen with real estate markets around the country.

Mark Zandi is one of those voices. He works for Moody’s economy.com, and he has taken it upon himself to attempt to formulate a prediction as to which housing markets are doomed and which may get off easy.

The results? Zandi predicts dire results in Cape Coral, Florida, where he sees a decline in home values of almost 19 percent. Reno, Nevada will be hard hit as well, with a predicted 17% drop in housing prices. Stockton, California will also be creamed, suffering from a 15% drop. How did Zandi come up with these numbers? His recipe consisted of a few heaping helpings of supply and demand, a generous serving of changes in local mortgage rates, a smidge of demographic trends, a teaspoon of job market analysis and a pinch of new housing numbers.

A second, and far less analytical prediction method is floating around, too. Traders at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange can actually trade real estate futures in ten different housing markets. Their findings? San Diego will be the hardest hit, with declines around 8 percent. Los Angeles won’t be much better off, with an expected decline in value of just under 7 percent. Las Vegas, which many people see as being over valued because of the endless influx of new residents in the last 20 years, is predicted to see a drop of almost 8 percent.

There were several areas where the two predictions matched. Both predicted almost the exact same decline in San Diego and in Washington D.C.

But there were also major differences. Boston, which has already been taking the brunt of the current housing market is predicted by Zandi to only see an increase of just over 2 percent in value lost. The CME traders, however, see a continued decline of 7 percent.

While no one knows for sure what’s going to happen, the one thing pretty much everyone agrees on now is that the market is headed south. The best choice might be to just hang onto that property until things start going your way again, but it’s anyone’s prediction as to how long that is going to be.

Of all the factors that helped push the recent real estate boom of the last 5 years, low mortgage rates were perhaps the biggest. A recent climb in mortgage rates was also thought to be one of the big reasons the market can cooled so quickly. But with recent economic news showing a drop in rates, does that mean the bust is coming to a premature end?

Not so fast say the experts. Housing inventories are through the roof across the United States, and sales are down in most of those same markets. Recent rate news is good, however, with mortgage rates peeking in July of 2006 at 6.79 percent for a fixed mortgage (30-year), while rates in mid-October have slid to 6.40 percent. While that may be cause for relief on the surface, if you take a look at where rates were last year at the same time, they are up from 5.8 percent.

Rates were at their lowest in the last 5 years during June of 2003 when they sat at 5.2 percent.

The reason the mortgage rate has such an impact on housing sales is because the rate has direct bearing on how much a person’s mortgage payment is going to be. The higher the rate, the more the payment and vice versa. Most industry experts believe, however, that if the mortgage rate continues to fall and return to its 2003 lows, the housing market will recover nationwide sooner rather than later.

Many experts, however, point to the longer trend in mortgage rates and point out that while rates are up a bit over the last three years, they are still extremely low compared to trends in the last 50 years.

Adding to the pessimism is the absolute glut of inventory on the market right now. There is an increase of almost 40 percent in inventory available compared to last year, and while lower interest rates may persuade first-time buyers to take the leap, it’s convincing those that helped fuel the boom the last five years (people that bought homes for either investment purposes and people buying second homes) to re-enter the market. This, as they say, is easier said than done.

Taking a broad view, the mortgage rate is an essential part of a healthy real estate market. But its impact can be overstated. There any many other factors that would need to line up for the current housing slump to evaporate. If some of those other factors can line up, than a lower mortgage rate can help lead the real estate market back to the promise land.

Are you House Poor?

The great American Dream has always revolved around owning a home. Sure, having the 2.3 kids, the cushy corporate job and the stylish car to drive to work everyday are part of the myth, too, but nothing quite summed up Americana quite like the white picket fence. But if recent economic numbers are any clue, this dream is becoming a nightmare for many in the US.

According to date released by the United States Census Bureau, an increasing number of homeowners are spending a larger and larger amount of their incomes on housing than in previous years. People in 49 out of 50 states reported an increase. The only state that didn’t, Alaska, spent the same amount. The report showed that people are spending around 21 percent on their housing needs, up from 19 percent in 1999.

This is a huge problem for first-time buyers who may now be priced out of housing markets all across the country. Economists point to rises in home prices in the last 7 years, as well as higher interest rates, coupled with stagnant wages over the same period.

While everyone seems to be in agreement that the housing “bubble” is either bursting, or getting ready to burst depending on where you live, housing prices are still up a remarkable 32 percent since the beginning of the decade.

Household incomes, on the other hand, haven’t done a very good job of keeping up. The same Census report showed that income has actually dropped, not risen, over the past 7 years, down 2.8 percent.

Maybe the worst news in the report was the percent of people who allot more than 30% of their income for housing. The numbers are up almost 8%. National guidelines suggest that more than 30% of household income for housing is excessive and not financially healthy.

What does this mean in the long run?

Most experts agree that until income can catch up to housing, the real estate market will remain lifeless. And since real estate is one of the biggest drivers to the overall economy, a weak real estate market means a weak economy.

Things appear to be the worst in California. Not only do they have the most expensive real estate in the nation, 48 percent of California homeowners spend more than 30% of their income on housing related costs.

Until income can begin to grow as quickly as the real estate market, this trend shows no signs of slowing down. Which could mean that the upcoming real estate slump could last much longer than anyone predicted.